Conspiracy theories cause the rise of populism

Coinciding with the increased support for populist parties that we have witnessed all over the West, the last decade has also seen an increase in the number of populism-related studies, covering topics such as the causes and consequences of voting for parties that support these ideas, or the reasons for and possible consequences of the emergence and increasing presence of the attitudes on which they are based.

There are different opinions when it comes to addressing this issue. Some authors believe that there is no clear distinction between conspiracy theory trends and populism because they are very similar or reflect the same mentality. Others believe that one of these two factors is the trigger and driving force for change. The authors of this new study come down on this latter side.

What the researchers say: "In our paper, we argue and empirically prove by means of various methodological strategies – including an experiment – that changes in populist thinking can be explained by conspiracy theories,” the lead author said. “Exposure to conspiracy theories makes people more likely to believe them, which in turn promotes populist thinking, particularly Manichaean thinking."

However, this does not mean that the opposite does not happen too, as populist thinking can also promote the tendency to believe in conspiracy theories. In fact, evidence has shown that the development of such ideas can be encouraged by the discourse of certain parties.

“Both routes are possible and simultaneous: it will work one way for some people and the other way for others. Our paper focuses on proving the less explored route, according to which exposure to conspiracy theories encourages populist thinking,” said the authors.

The researchers started their study by carrying out an online survey of 2,887 adults. The aim was to establish if there was a link between those people who believe in four distinct conspiracy theories – those relating to 9/11, those relating to the pharmaceutical industry, those that claim the world is dominated by secret groups, and those making claims about alien life – and a set of populist statements such as "many members of government are shameless" or "those who don't agree with my political views are misinformed". The authors indeed found a correlation: people who embrace conspiracy theories usually have populist attitudes.

The second part of the study involved a survey-based experiment: a group of participants were chosen at random and exposed to a conspiracy theory relating to the 9/11 attacks. Afterwards, they were asked a set of questions to find out their opinion about a number of strongly populist statements. The people who had been exposed to the conspiracy theory were much more likely to agree with them than those in the control group.

From among the various dimensions of populism, Manichaeism was the one most strongly affected by exposure to conspiracy theories. Manichaeism views society as split between good and evil, between those who are right and those who are wrong. According to the researchers, this idea fits well with conspiracy theories, which always involve an overarching plot concealing the truth about certain situations. This is something we should be very aware of because Manichaeism is probably behind other worrying phenomena seen in the last few decades, such as rising polarization and support for populist and even anti-establishment parties.

In turn, the other two dimensions of populism seemed unaffected by conspiracy theories. These two dimensions are anti-elitism, which is the rejection of the individuals and institutions in power, and people-centrism, which is based on the idea that popular sovereignty is the epitome of democracy and power should be held by the people. "Although we had reasons to expect conspiratorial thinking to affect these two dimensions as well, the data showed that, at least in Spain where the experiments took place, this isn't the case. Being exposed to conspiracy theories and believing them causes us to see the world in black and white, as a fight between good and evil. People who see things in this way will view any coalition, agreement or compromise between political parties or stakeholders as a serious betrayal, and any concession to the other side will cause outrage and disenchantment," said the researchers.

In Spain the proportion of people who support conspiracy theories is average and very similar to the figures seen in other countries. As a result, the authors believe their findings can be extrapolated to other countries. They explained: "we have no reason to believe that the correlation we found in Spain won't also apply in other contexts, even if we assume they're different in nature.”

So, what? As the researchers note in their study, populism has been widely studied—especially since the rise of Trumpism in the US.

Many of these studies have tied both the rise of conspiracy theories and populism to an increasing level of inequality. People deprived of their status because of the evaporation of jobs, whose union-engendered salaries put them into the middle class, find an explanation for their situation in generalized conspiracies and are drawn to predominantly right-wing populist solutions. Which, of course, suits the plutocrats well.

Most research has found that the populist parties and the conspiracy theories which underpin them are funded by very rich donors.